Ukraine politicians have called for the imposition of a no-fly zone over the Ukraine. Our leaders have refused because they are afraid this could lead to a direct military (and possibly nuclear) confrontation with Russia. So are we either legally or honour bound to do anything more than impose sanctions?
We sympathise with Ukraine in its hours of agony. Our politicians posture and make grand speeches. We impose sanctions. But Ukraine is a distant country few of us have heard of until a few weeks ago. It is not a NATO member. Its people speak a language very similar to Russian and historically Ukraine was part of the old Soviet Union. So why should we care? Aren’t sanctions enough?
Unfortunately, we can’t get out of our legal and moral obligations so easily. Both the US and the UK are bound by a treaty dated 5th December 1994. This legally does require both the US and the UK to guaranty the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Before this treaty Ukraine had a nuclear arsenal of 1,900 nuclear warheads, each with explosive yields of between 400-550 kilotons – each 27 – 37 times the size of the atomic bomb which devastated Hiroshima in World War II.
The 1994 treaty was signed by Russia, the US and the UK. By this treaty, Ukraine gave up her nuclear arsenal in return for assurances by all three signatories to guaranty her right to exist as a sovereign, independent state.
On the basis of this agreement, Ukraine gave up all her nuclear weapons. It is doubtful if Mr. Putin would have dared attack Ukraine if Ukraine had kept its nuclear arsenal.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is in clear breach of this treaty. Ukraine are calling on NATO to enforce a “no fly” zone over the whole of Ukraine. In strictly legal terms, the treaty does not require any of the parties to it to do anything to remedy any breach of the agreement other than seek the assistance of the UN. This has been done and Russia has used its veto in the Security Council. Clearly the exercise of the veto is also contrary to the express terms of the treaty.
It is clear the USA and UK are expected to guaranty the integrity and independence of Ukraine. The question is whether or not economic sanctions go far enough. If Ukraine falls, the answer will be “No”. The question will then be asked: “Can the West be relied upon to honour our international commitments? Will the rest of the world trust any liberal democratic country any more? And what damage will that do to the international world order?
We have seen how Russian air power has crushed opposition to Syria’s brutal dictatorship, using barrel bombs, cluster bombs and missiles against civilian targets. It looks as though Mr. Putin is using the same tactics to grind down the brave Ukrainian resistance. Judging from the example of Syria, he will almost certainly succeed in the end, if he keeps at it long enough. This is the reality which we all need to face. The best way to stop him would be to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
Mr. Putin has put his nuclear forces on alert. The question is: would he use them? He would be mad to do so. The question is: is he that mad? Well, whether we like him or not, one thing stands out and this is that he is a man who uses threats and takes calculated risks. However ruthless a dictator and brutal his methods, he is not a Hitler. His bluff should be called.
We should consider the consequences of not stopping Putin. We have seen the consequences of the other wars he’s been involved with. They usually produce floods of refugees which can have a destabilising effect on liberal democracies. Refugees are accepted in their thousands and this raises political tensions at home which are exploited by extremists, particularly the extreme right. This suits dictators like Putin down to the ground. And as all the world is taught English, our over-crowded UK has become a popular destination for refugees.
There is clear choice: either we bring Putin’s legions to a halt immediately by imposing a no-fly zone, or else we rely on sanctions and attrition until either the Russian economy collapses completely, or the cost to the democracies becomes too great for ordinary people to bear or Ukraine capitulates.
Even if sanctions are successful, it could take a long time for them to work, and the death toll and destruction of the war and the financial sacrifice of people in the democracies will grow daily. My guess is that if a no-fly zone is imposed, Mr. Putin will immediately instruct his negotiating teams to find a face-saving way of ending the conflict.
ENDS
NOTE TO EDITOR:
On 5th November 1994 a historic deal was made with Ukraine. It was signed by Russia, USA and the UK. It came into force on 5th December 1994 and was registered with the UN on 2nd October 2014. It is a binding international treaty.
Its UN registration no. is 52241. Its title is “Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the non-proliferation of Nuclear weapons, Budapest, 5 December 1994”. A copy is attached.
You will see how this treaty requires Russia, USA and UK to respect the independence and sovereignty of the existing borders of Ukraine, to refrain from the threat of force against the territorial or political independence of Ukraine, not to use any weapons against Ukraine, to refrain from economic coercion against Ukraine, to seek immediate UN assistance if Ukraine should become the victim of aggression or threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used, and not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear weapon state.
